This is going on the Web momentarily and into this week's ARRL Letter.

Dave

“Source” Disavows Inflated NTIA BPL Figure

The National Telecommunications and Information Administration report “Networked Nation: Broadband in America 2007” that was released on January 31, 2008 includes the following:

Five years of experience in dealing with BPL systems as a radio interference source have given the ARRL, the national association for Amateur Radio, considerable insight into the BPL industry. Based on that experience, the ARRL has concluded that the FCC’s figure of fewer than 5,000 BPL customers is entirely credible. Therefore, the ARRL set out to determine the source of the “estimate” of 200,000 current BPL subscribers.

We contacted TIA and were advised that the figure came from a market study prepared by Wilkofsky Gruen Associates Inc. (www.wilkofskygruen.com) and based on research conducted by In-Stat (www.instat.com), a unit of Reed Business Information.

So, we contacted In-Stat and asked how the figure was derived. They responded: “The 200,000 number for BPL subs did not come from In-Stat. In our US broadband forecast, we estimate about 231,000 broadband subscribers in the "other" category besides DSL, cable, satellite. Other includes BPL, but is not solely BPL.”

We then contacted Wilkofsky Gruen Associates. They responded, “Our source for the BPL figures was In-Stat.” When In-Stat’s denial was shared with them they responded, “It was our understanding that BPL was the principal component as it was the first item listed by In-Stat.”

TIA was invited to comment but declined to do so.

In other words, here is what we have learned. In-Stat does not claim to know how many BPL subscribers there are, but provides an estimate of 231,000 broadband subscribers who receive service via delivery systems other than DSL, cable, and satellite. Wilkofsky Gruen Associates, on the basis of nothing more than that BPL is listed first, assumes that the bulk of these 231,000 are BPL subscribers and arbitrarily attributes 200,000 of them to BPL. In turn, NTIA – not satisfied with an FCC figure that is derived from required reports from service providers – cites this arbitrarily chosen figure – a figure that is entirely unsupported by any data whatsoever – as evidence that the FCC’s figure – which is fully supported by data – “appears low.”

On February 1 (http://www.arrl.org/news/stories/2008/02/01/101/?nc=1) we called upon the NTIA to issue a corrected report. We renew that call now.

David Sumner
Chief Executive Officer, ARRL
February 5, 2008