The substantive output of WRC-15 is slowing considerably as crunch time has been reached on the conference's most divisive issues, including new mobile service allocations for broadband and IMT (modern cellular telephony), spectrum issues related to command and control of unmanned aircraft, and, most notably for Amateur Radio, the agenda for WRC-19. The working group responsible for the future agenda is not progressing efficiently (nor is the rest of the conference), so predictions about the opportunities and challenges the next agenda will provide are premature. The best that I can report is that the following items are under consideration for WRC-19:

1) An effort to globally harmonize the 50 MHz allocation,
2) Consideration of new space operations service allocations for commercial small satellites at VHF and UHF (our 2 meter allocation seems to be safe, but 70 cm may be affected),
3) Consideration of spectrum above 6 GHz for "5G" IMT--it appears our 47 GHz allocation will be among the targets considered, and 10 GHz may yet be, and
4) Consideration of mobile allocations for radio local area networks near 5 GHz, perhaps including parts of the amateur secondary allocation there.

Suffice to say the next cycle will almost certainly require substantial defensive efforts. It is reasonable to think that one of the above defensive issue may work itself out in the next week. It is within possibility that two of them might. If all three of them do, I will eat my hat (with glee).

I have been asked (and have read message board posts asking) how the WRC-15 decision on 5 MHz will affect our access to the existing channels. In the short term, that's an easy question to answer; the FCC's rules remain valid until they are changed, and we all know they tend to change at a glacial pace.

The longer term is harder to predict. While the final acts of WRC-15 will almost certainly come into force on January 1, 2017, it has historically taken the FCC considerably longer to implement them domestically. While we expect the FCC will eventually implement the WRC-15 result, the Commission would not be precluded from maintaining one or more of the existing channels--or authorizing more power within the new allocation--under provision No. 4.4 of the ITU Radio Regulations, which allows administrations to deviate from the international table of allocations on the express condition that harmful interference shall not be caused to services operating in accordance with the Radio Regulations. This is the same provision under which the various domestic arrangements for amateurs are accomplished today.

While I tend to doubt that the FCC would be likely to apply No. 4.4 to increase the power within the new allocation, we may be able to build a case for some supplementary channel access with the support of at least FEMA on the government side. Both Ted Okada and Ross Merlin have suggested this possibility to me, and I know the issue has been broached to Mike Corey as well. We will try to further develop this idea so that the Board can consider it as it decides how and when (and perhaps even whether) to ask for the implementation of the WRC-15 allocation.

One week remains in the conference, so we'll know how things have shaken out by Black Friday.

73 de Brennan HB9/N4QX

Brennan T. Price, N4QX
Chief Technology Officer
American Radio Relay League
PO Box 3470
Oakton VA 22124-9470
Tel +1 860 594-0247
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