7 MAR 2006 - 1415 CST
The CNN item below was sent to me by a local ham friend earlier this
afternoon.
73 - Dick, W9GIG
=========================================================================
Solar Flares May Pack A Bigger Punch
Scientists suggests solar cycle will be 30-50
percent more intense
CNN - Tuesday, March 7, 2006; Posted: 11:39
AM EST (16:39 GMT)
LOS ANGELES, California (AP) -- A new computer model suggests the next
solar cycle will be more active than the previous one, potentially
spawning magnetic storms that will be more disruptive to communication
systems on Earth.
The next sunspot cycle will be between 30 percent to 50 percent more
intense than the last one, scientists said Monday.
The cycle will also begin a year later than expected, in late 2007 or
early 2008, and peak around 2012, said Mausumi Dikpati of the National
Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado.
The new prediction is at odds with previous forecasts, which suggested
that the intensity of the next solar cycle would be measurably
smaller.
Accurately predicting the intensity of the sunspot cycle, which occurs
about every 11 years, allows scientists to anticipate solar storms. They
are caused by solar flares, or giant eruptions that burst from the
surface of the sun.
Solar storms, which eject billions of tons of plasma and charged
particles into space, can produce dazzling northern lights, but also
disrupt power lines, radio transmissions and satellite
communication.
The last time the solar cycle peaked was in 2001. During the last cycle,
solar storms caused extreme radio blackouts in the Pacific.
For decades, scientists have tracked the solar cycle and appearance of
sunspots, but they have been unable to accurately predict the intensity
or timing of solar storms, which increase as the number of sunspots
increases.
Dikpati, of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, said her team
tested the new computer model using previous solar cycle data and had 98
percent accuracy.
David Hathaway, a solar astronomer with NASA's Marshall Space Flight
Center
in Huntsville, Alabama, does not doubt that the next sunspot cycle will
be stronger than the previous one.
But Hathaway said his own research suggests that the next cycle will
occur late this year -- earlier than what Dikpati predicted.
The current research, funded by National Science Foundation, is published
in the latest Geophysical Research Letters.
=========================================================================