Hi Kermit, You are absolutely correct. If you are interested, the assumptions ARRL uses (and the impact of variations in those assumptions) for the future value of our investments and the future cost of delivering membership are spelled out in the report I sent to ODV yesterday. 73, Howard On 09/16/2019 10:26 PM, Kermit Carlson wrote: Hello ALL, Thank you Howard for checking into the details of how to decrease the membership retention costs. With respect to the issue of life membership "pricing"; Determining the reasonable cost of a life membership is akin to offering a life insurance policy since it has the two same basic issues; that of life expectancy and that of future value versus present value. In my discussions with many members in the 65+ range, the number that seems to arise is 10 or 15 years lump sum as apposed to the 24 year lump sum. One danger in offering such discounts in general is that it places the League in the position similar to an insurance company looking for which loaded actuarial table can be believed as being correct. In 2017, the White male population LD50% at 65 years was 18.1 years according to the NVSR (National Vital Statistic Report the CDC's NVSE) so offering a life membership to a white male 65 year old really needs to be based on the present value of basically an 18 year term for break-even. The life expectancy number at age 65 that I used was from the 2017 NVSE; https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr68/nvsr68_07-508.pdf Another problem is the variability of future value of an asset, such as the future value of a life membership purchased today. If it is purchased by that same white male population today at age 65; at 2% interest for 18 years a $490 sum is equal to future value of $700; at 5% that $490 sum would, at 18 years, have a future value of $1,180. A 3% aggregated increase of interest during those 18 years would have an increased cost of $480 based on the change future value. (Of course the compounding rate for the calculation would change the numbers. I chose once a year for the term to produce this estimate.) What it does show is that risk from the variability of future value can equal the present value with a 3% change in inflation. Another variability which will affect the outcome is that life expectancy will likely continue to increase beyond the 2017 figures. The result of that likelihood increases the term and would increase the real cost of the offering. 73, Kermit W9XA On Monday, September 16, 2019, 5:28:59 PM CDT, Michel, Howard, WB2ITX (CEO) <wb2itx@arrl.org><mailto:wb2itx@arrl.org> wrote: Hi Kermit, The thread seems to have grown three heads... 1) the initial thread to provide a reduce membership 2) reduce life member dues 3) and now, the cost of member retention. I've addressed the first two in other replies. I'm not sure if your estimated cost of member retention is accurate -- whether it is high or low. It's hard to tie all the costs together. What I do know is that we currently mail up to five letters to members to renew. We have trained many of them to wait until the 4th or 5th solicitation so they can receive a free book. I have asked Kathleen (new MarCom Manager) to find a way out of this mess. 73, Howard, WB2ITX On 09/15/2019 11:21 PM, Kermit Carlson via arrl-odv wrote: Hello Ria and Rick I have heard a lot of support for a life-membership for "older" members. Since the cost of member retention works out to about $8/yr/member perhaps we could consider this a way to lock-in positive recruitment for more than just year-to-year.... 73, Kermit On Saturday, September 14, 2019, 6:18:49 AM CDT, rjairam@gmail.com<mailto:rjairam@gmail.com> <rjairam@gmail.com><mailto:rjairam@gmail.com> wrote: I see Hudson Division is the worst performing at -3.1%. Ouch! I do suspect that’s because of out-migration. We’ve been steadily losing population here, particularly among retirees. Our hamfests here have also been getting smaller and smaller as hams either move to warmer, more tax friendly locales or die off. As far as dues go I am consistently told by members and ex members (as recently as last night at a club meeting) that they want some sort of tiered membership with an option for a digital magazine instead of print. While I do get that we have to balance this with advertisers, it may be a good time to look at this idea. 73 Ria, N2RJ On Sat, Sep 14, 2019 at 1:46 AM Roderick, Rick, K5UR via arrl-odv <arrl-odv@reflector.arrl.org<mailto:arrl-odv@reflector.arrl.org>> wrote: Hi all: Here’s something to think about as you kick back for the weekend. Listed below are the membership stats for August. Only 3 Divisions had a positive number compared to one year ago, and the overall total was -0.9%. Statistically, the percentages may be small in many instances, but they’re still negative. Congratulations to the Northwestern, Roanoke, and Rocky Mountain Divisions for having positive numbers! Our numbers have been suffering since the dues increase in 2016 and the recovery has been similar to the dues increase 15 years before it, but that should be no excuse. We need to turn this around. Please, give this effort priority and let’s make these numbers positive in every Division. You may recall that A&F is studying the feasibility of having a layered or tiered-style Life Membership. Also, I’ve asked A&F to consider having a general membership drive in conjunction with any changes we make to the Life Membership. Seems like that would be an opportune time to launch an aggressive membership campaign. If you have any ideas that might work for such a campaign, please let A&F know. 73, Rick – K5UR ............................. August 2019 vs 2018 Atlantic -0.7% Central -0.6 Dakota -0.8 Delta -0.9 Foreign -5.0 Great Lakes -0.9 Hudson -3.1 Midwest -1.5 New England -1.7 Northwestern 0.5 * Pacific -1.1 Roanoke 0.2 * Rocky Mountain 0.4 * Southeastern -0.2 Southwestern -0.2 West Gulf -0.4 Total -0.9% _______________________________________________ arrl-odv mailing list arrl-odv@reflector.arrl.org<mailto:arrl-odv@reflector.arrl.org> https://reflector.arrl.org/mailman/listinfo/arrl-odv _______________________________________________ arrl-odv mailing list arrl-odv@reflector.arrl.org<mailto:arrl-odv@reflector.arrl.org> https://reflector.arrl.org/mailman/listinfo/arrl-odv -- Howard E. Michel, WB2ITX Chief Executive Officer ARRL, The National Association for Amateur Radio® 225 Main Street, Newington, CT 06111-1494 USA Telephone: +1 860-594-0404 email: hmichel@arrl.org<mailto:hmichel@arrl.org> _______________________________________________ arrl-odv mailing list arrl-odv@reflector.arrl.org<mailto:arrl-odv@reflector.arrl.org> https://reflector.arrl.org/mailman/listinfo/arrl-odv -- Howard E. Michel, WB2ITX Chief Executive Officer ARRL, The National Association for Amateur Radio® 225 Main Street, Newington, CT 06111-1494 USA Telephone: +1 860-594-0404 email: hmichel@arrl.org<mailto:hmichel@arrl.org>